We have a three part philosphy: progress, probability, and process
We know startups. We've founded them, invested in them, and advised them. So we understand just how much progress they can make pursuing opportunities that more established firms don't even recognize. They are responsible for a huge number of new markets, new technologies, and new products. We believe the youngest startups have the greatest potential for astounding progress because they have the fewest preconceptions, face the fewest constraints, and possess the most drive. These are the ones we want to serve.
However, we also understand that the probability of a particular young startup succeeding is relatively small. Many things are beyond its control. Many things can change. Many things have to go right. Probability compounds and there are literally thousands of factors that can significantly affect a young startup. So there's a tremendous amount of uncertainty. We do not believe anyone has a model with much skill in picking winners at the seed stage. Therefore, the only reasonable strategy is to diversify away the idiosyncratic risk as much as possible by constructing as large a portfolio as is practical.
Efficiently producing a large number of anything requires a repeatable process. Investing in seed-stage startups is no different. Where others might see an impossible task in making hundreds of investments each year, we see a challenge. We've looked at the processing requirements, available data, and applicable technology. The result is an initial process that should support investments in hundreds of new ventures per year. Moreover, by adopting a process-oriented perspective, we can measure, experiment, and optimize to constantly improve.
The part of our philosphy that makes us most different from other startup investors is that we don't believe gut feel is a reliable indicator of potential at the seed stage. Humans are just not very good at simultaneously integrating that much uncertainty to form a judgement. So we focus on specific aspects of a proposed venture that we can evaluate with minimal ambiguity. Over time, we plan to build increasingly sophisticated evaluation methods based on hard evidence.